Book review
The Singularity is Near
Viking, 2005
Author: Ray Kurxweil
Review by Donald Clark, Epic
Big book, big subject
This is a big book on a big subject – the singularity,
a point in history when technological change will proceed so fast
that we’ll pass an irreversible ‘event horizon’
that takes us beyond the limits of biology into accelerated technological
evolution. All that we know will be transformed as we transcend
our biological roots. There will be ‘no distinction between
human and machine or between physical and virtual reality’.
We will live forever and fully understand the human brain and thinking.
Wow! Time to slow down a little.
Six epochs of evolution
His six epochs are: Physics and chemistry, Biology and DNA, Brains,
Technology, Merger of human technology and human intelligence, The
universe wakes up.
Hope or hype?
At the heart of his argument lie several abstract concepts. These
are the building blocks for singularity upon which his thesis stands
or falls.
While the idea of a merged, symbiotic mind/machine model is profound,
‘reverse engineering of the brain’ is too empty a concept.
Scanning is a far cry from understanding and building complex structures
and neuroscience is nowhere near reaching an understanding of how
the brain works.
Law of accelerated returns
The idea that technological advance operates under a ‘Law
of accelerated returns’ is his core concept. This is reasonable,
from Moore’s law onwards we’ve seen exponential growth
in minituarisation, speed and storage. This is the strongest conceptual
contribution from the book. He quantifies and extrapolates accelerating
change in technology with a good command of the data. This trips
over into ‘paradigm-shift’ at times, a different concept.
There is a great difference between the Copernican and Darwinian
revolutions and the introduction of new consumer devices. His unmeasured
use of the term ‘paradigm-shift’ is therefore unnerving.
This fast and loose use of abstract concepts allows him to ride
through non-sequitars on the back of moving from one unproven theory
to another. Much of these are merely castles in the air.
There’s a philosophical naivety in all this, confirmed when
he comes up against a philosophical heavyweight like John Searle.
His physicalism and reductionism are extreme and Searle’s
discussions of consciousness and the on-body problem are way ahead
of Kurzweil.
Progress may not be defined in Kurzweil’s terms, as exponential
technological progress. This may help, but it is not a definition
of progress in itself. Far greater minds than Kurzweil have grappled
with these problems Nietzssche’s critique of nihilism and
more recently John Gray’s attack on the enlightenment folly
of uninterrupted ‘progress’ to name one 19th century
and one contemporary thinker.
Hype and hyperbole?
American authors can be wildy over-optimistic. It’s a national
trait, as their faith in the enlightenment ideal of progress and
growth is hard-wired into their culture. Positively, this results
in enthusiastic prose, well-researched examples and a trajectory
that points to a utopian future, where technology solves most of
our human ills. The scope of his research is breathtaking and he
uncovers areas of research and technology that would be known only
by the most dedicated tech-watchers. On the negative side, he frequently
tips over into hype and hyperbole, pulling in any old theory or
research area that seems remotely related to his argument.
The only way is up!
This is the sort of ‘metahistory’ book that Spengler
and Toynbee used to write. Grand sweeps of history that claim to
have found an underlying dynamic, the driver behind the rise and
fall of civilisations. Spengler saw us in a period of decline in
his brilliant ‘Decline of the West’ and Toynbee whose
12 volume ‘Study of History’ produced a synthesis of
global history, based on cycles of rise, flowering and decline.
Kurzweil only sees the rise of the West, built on runaway growth
and benefits of technological progress. If he is right we are in
for a massively disruptive, but positive, shock, a century of unparallelled
progress. If he is wrong, which is more likely, then the turmoil
will continue.
Kurzweil is blind to any other scenraio. For an antidote to Kurzweil’s
relentless faith bin progresss, try John Grays ‘Straw Dogs’
or ‘Heresies’.
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