Roundup of 2004
Review by Donald Clark, Epic.
2004 was the year of the monkey and, true to form,
there was a great deal of monkey business going on. For me it was
the year of technology; the joy of the mini-iPOD, which has changed
my music listening habits forever, along with upgrading to a wireless
network at home. My kids have continued to enlighten me with their
‘webcams with messenger’, online games (Runescape) and
wireless Gameboys. I’ve also enjoyed my wireless headset –
great for the bath or garden listening. My new digital camera worked
a treat and my jumpstart drive has made file transfer a doddle.
This is all starting to come together. The technology is fun, useful
and it all works!
In e-learning, some government stuff started, failed and faltered.
Companies started to stabilise with only a few faltering. Some mergers,
but not many, just the usual consolidation through attrition. The
good news is that despite the confusion, the e-learning market appears,
from the limited data available, to be growing. This was confirmed
by the ASTD State of the Industry Report, research commissioned
by the UfI and CIPD research.
Market
In the corporate sector some consolidation was seen in the US,
notably the Docent and Click2learn merger in March. The new entity
‘Sumtotal’ is emerging from its merger phase - Kevin
Oakes assured me that this is now complete. Again in March Convergys
acquired DigitalThink for $120 million making Convergys a ‘player’
in global training outsourcing. DT never did make a profit, maybe
it can within a bigger group.
Skillsoft seem to be stable, however poor product perceptions continue.
The Company is now targeting a revenue range of $212 million to
$217 million and a net income range of $11.8 million to $16.0 million
for fiscal 2005 as a whole, compared to revenues of $193.5 million
and a loss of ($0.81) per basic and diluted share in 2004. This
is a reduction on their previously targeted revenue range of $221
million to $225 million and a targeted net income range of $21.0
million to $24.0 million.
In June, Blackboard had hugely successful float on NASDAQ, but
has now come off to a price nearer its float price. However, their
competitors in this sector, such as eCollege, Corinthian Colleges
and DeVry continue to suffer. DeVry now appears on the Fuckedcompany.com
website!
In the UK, KnowledgePool and ACT went into receivership while others
reported sizeable losses, or at best breakeven. However, the market
has also seen some emerge from loss making entities into profitable
entities. A number, encouragingly, are indicating growth in 2005
including, of course, Epic.
Overall there is no real sign of consolidation. What consolidation
there has been, has come through attrition i.e. companies merging
to save both from extinction or companies simply going out of business.
The e-learning market is a slower burn and has a dynamic different
from what most analysts predicted.
Market research
ASTD (US) State of the Industry report
Just released this month, the annual 2004 report has a wealth of
data on the training industry based on data from 344 US organisations.
The headlines are:
1. Learning increasingly linked to performance
2. E-learning up from 15.4% to 23.6%
3. Annual training expenditure per employee steady at $820
4. Time steady at 26 hours per employee
CIPD research
Want an insight into where training is going? Coaching (51% increase)
and e-learning (42% increase) are the two dominant trends in training,
along with a need for shorter and more flexible approach to delivery.
‘E-learning seems to be making some significant headway’
says the report.
Overall, however, it’s a flat year for training budgets with
increasing pressure on budgets in the public sector. The perceived
benefits have more of a focus on ‘training means business’
through the direct improvement of skills related to job demands.
UfI commissioned research
A well researched report commissioned by UfI from Hi Europe and
Howard Hill Associates, looked at over 500 companies' experience
and attitudes towards e-learning.
The findings are as follows:
1. Companies who are current users of e-learning see it growing
from 15% to 29% of all training delivered (on average)
2. All companies have the expectation that e-learning will grow
over the next two years
3. Classroom activity shrinking
4. E-learning appears to be displacing classroom activity:
Other research
It was also a year when good research started to hit the streets.
Carol Twigg’s Center for Educational Transformation produced
an astoundingly good piece of work. The LSDA also produced an excellent
piece of research demolishing learning styles theories. The research
showing improvement in grades on the back of the SCHOLAR e-learning
programme in schools was also useful. The sad fact is that much
of this research will, of course, be ignored.
Government strategies
In January we had the now infamous Towards a Unified e-Learning
Strategy. It was a sort of educational tract/DfES departmental plan,
completely missing the commercial sector. End of January was the
deadline for responses to this consultation document. Pie charts
were slapped in the faces of those who had spent hours submitting
entries, but no strategy emerged. We are still waiting on the action
points from the results! Someone mentioned February 2005? Seems
as if the government has gone cold on the whole idea. Indeed, some
of the government bodies mentioned in their own report no longer
exist. In the meantime, people have just got on with things. The
market has moved on, with informal learning and a dozen other interesting
ideas emerging from practitioners.
The UKeUniversity collapsed in a heap with lots of bad press and
an acrimonious Select Committee grilling the Chair and Chief Executive
of HEFCE about the bonuses for 30 of the 70 staff. November saw
the NHSU merge down into a new NHS Institute, haunted since its
inception, like the UfI, with the ‘university’ tag.
To be fair it was the Labour party who insisted on this term. They
hadn’t reckoned with the traditional University sector, who
guard their patch with Cerebus-like aggression. On the other hand
we’ve seen the success of the Interactive University in Scotland,
which is thriving on a fraction of the funding and starting to pay
its way.
Technology
The gadget of choice in 2004 was the iPOD. Broadband sales were
buoyant, whiteboards are now a common sight in classrooms and the
demographic shift, away from newspapers and TV towards online, continued
unabated. The US election put the internet at the centre of political
debate and fundraising for both parties. No real sign of m-learning
emerging as PDAs start to look a little tired and mobiles continue
to be lifestyle devices. P2P continues to grow with Bittorrent heading
towards 60 million users by 2006. Wireless is everywhere, or should
I say not everywhere, with wireless access through laptops, blackberries
and home networks.
Ruth Kelly
Last, but not least, we have a new Education minister, Ruth Kelly,
a tough economist from the Treasury. What will she make of the ‘strategic’
thinking in education? Is it only a matter of time before the epithet
‘Ruthless’ comes into play?
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